How Will Stocks React to a Government Shutdown?
President Trump's meeting with congressional leaders signals a last-ditch effort to avert a government shutdown, yet markets remain buoyant. Historical data suggests minimal long-term impact on equities—the S&P 500 rallied 10% during the 2018 shutdown, while median returns post-event hover at 2.6% and 7.5% over three and six months, respectively.
Delayed economic reports like CPI and retail sales may introduce short-term volatility, but GDP losses average just 0.1% per week—typically recouped afterward. The resilience of risk assets underscores a broader trend: macroeconomic disruptions increasingly serve as buying opportunities rather than systemic threats.